From Our CEO
The Three Phases of Un/Certainty
Published September 15, 2025
Hello friends and partners,
Heading into Fall, it continues to be a wild ride. After this is all over, I think we’ll need a new word for “uncertainty” as we’ll have worn it out completely. In much the same way as I hope to never hear the words “out of an abundance of caution” spoken again, I hope to not hear about “uncertainty”. Of course, that won’t be true, there will always be uncertainty. Knowing we’ll have it means we have to figure out what to do with it.
The Three Phases of Un/Certainty
These phases of uncertainty can just as easily be flipped on their head and labeled the phases of certainty. You can plot them like a sine wave.
Failing Certainty
The longer we have a deep sense of certainty, the more we’ll begin to think about it faltering. So, before we even hit “peak certainty” we know it won’t last. But we don’t (most of us) act on that feeling.
Certain Uncertainty
Then we crest the peak of certainty and are damn sure that uncertainty is increasing. We begin to see it all around us. Depending on our personality and our biases, we likely overdo it, or we underdo it as we lean into confirmation biases or false senses of security. Most of us are acting on it during this phase with varying degrees of wisdom and disparate tools at our disposal.
Rising Certainty
At some point we bottom out and begin to feel like we can trust the ground beneath us again. We start to think beyond survival mode and look for the opportunities that we sense are coming. It is the Spring after a harsh Winter.
I think there are these things to think about if this resonates for you:
- Your biases will influence how and when you act in the cycle of Un/Certainty
- Opportunities are there throughout the cycle. How well we see them and can take advantage of them is both up to us and sometimes a matter of luck (do we have the tools and resources to take advantage of them or not).
- We can influence our capacity to take advantage of what we see by being highly anticipatory and ready when the time comes.
Most of us are leaders in some way shape or form in our respective organizations. I appreciate the guidance and collegial nature of so many of you. Here’s to our all being able to see and act when the time is right for us.
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