Navigating Uncertainty in Homebuilding
Challenges, Innovations, and the Path Forward in a Shifting Market
Published March 14, 2025
False Start
Though any of us who’ve lived in Colorado for more than a season know, it may seem Spring has sprung, but we know better. Don’t we?
Gripped by Uncertainty
I know many of us are waiting for Spring or at least a thaw in building. Yet, the overwhelming feeling I got from the many conversations I had with builders, manufacturers, suppliers, and other rating companies while attending IBS, was uncertainty. A few months ago, we were getting a message of cautious optimism. Now it seems it is just caution. I know that all of us who not only depend on but believe in the value of homebuilding and its critical role in our country and economy are worried about tariffs. I know there is also worry about the construction labor force and what may happen there.
IBS Las Vegas, February 25-27, 2025
Economic Forces at Play
At the same time, the complex nature of our economy means that despite sticky inflation, rising unemployment, and decreased growth may induce the Fed to reduce interest rates, which would be good for homebuilding. But who knows and who can tell which of these competing forces will have what effect? It’s no wonder that uncertainty reigns.
What We Know for Sure
And for all of that, we know two things with certainty. One, we need to build many more housing units across the country. Two, housing attainability is worse than ever. We all know these things and, while I make it part of my job to pay attention to potential solutions - modular building, regulation reform, incentives, etc. I see little that looks like it will move the needle in a meaningful way any time soon. Though, taken together and pursued with energy, perhaps the solutions are in front of us.
Searching for Solutions
This all may sound truly negative. It is. But, crisis is what drives innovation more than any other thing. I also believe that those of us who’ve made our careers in homebuilding will almost surely be part of the solutions as they arise. We find ourselves, again, in trying times despite what should be a bright future.
Strength in Partnership and Collaboration
A final thing that I know, is that we appreciate the partnership and collaborative spirit of all the builders and trades we work with. Together, we will navigate these challenges and build a stronger, more resilient future for our industry.
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